A Futurist Sketch
Dear reader, the following futurist fiction is written from the imagined vantage of a future historian. The work remains in early stages. It derives from a personal challenge to bring to life an organization and site embedded in specific social and technological outcomes. Consider giving this page a light skim.
This writing takes loose inspiration from some of Samo Burja and Allison Duettmann’s content on organizations and positive long term futures. Thank you to SH, MC, and MB for initial feedback.
A Case Study of Guild Influence and Origins: the Monastic Industrial Atelier
Aerilon University
April 14, 2180
Department of Applied History, Institutional Studies Lab
Aurora S. Markov, PhD
Author tag: Soanes_Pelagic_438
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Abstract
In the eyes of today, the atelier-- and Guild broadly--seem unremarkable. More powerful institutions arose more rapidly and have had a far greater and more lasting impact on our world. The Guild is noted in academic literature only because it was early--by nearly a decade and a half in its formation--and culturally unusual at its founding. While acknowledged as an achievement, this is generally overshadowed by the Guild’s apparent lack of scale or durability.
I propose a drastic reframing and credit the Guild with substantial contributions to the methods and team structures of modern design and production institutions.
Firstly, I argue that the Guild’s resilience during the early years of the changes--late 2050s-mid 2060s--is deeply historically anomalous and attributable to its founding design and continuity in leadership. This period, being now widely--and with rosey eyes--viewed as that of the initial formative regime’s contentious rise, was statistically and literally brutal for the survival of institutions of the Guild’s scale, rendering the case even more unusual. I present significant new detail on the Guild’s original site design as an illustration of its unique characteristics.
Secondly, the Guild, though formally dispersed as an formal institution in 2133, lived on for decades as a practice, and, I will argue, significantly upscaled it’s influence through it’s choice to formally dissolve at that time. This further suggests an underestimation of the Guild’s strategic sophistication and impact.
Thirdly, the Guild is widely seen as a moderately successful experiment which made minor contributions to the development of other tools and organization through technical advancements and the training of highly skilled designer-engineers. I instead propose that its technical and aesthetic contributions are both underestimated and resoundingly secondary to its contributions to our professional ethics, educational methodology, and structuring of cross functional design and production teams.
In effect, the ubiquitous playful household lore surrounding ‘the Guild’ and it’s ‘cowboy’ members may be a superior indicator of its influence than its academic dismissal.
I propose it be justly re-categorized as a phenomenally successful bridge institution worthy of further examination.
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank the research team at the university libraries in Denver for their dedication and rigor; my mentors at the university, Marigold Physconia and Brindar J. Reynolds, for their unwavering patience and good humor; the Portland chapter of Archivists; and the patronage of the department and the McGraw research fund, whose support made this work possible.
Additionally, after dedicating the last 4 years of my professional life to the excavation of this institutional story, I wish to express my gratitude to the generations of imaginative youth and guardians who, through their fanciful tales, kept the legends of the Guild members alive. It has been humbling and delightful to find the stories of my childhood echoing in my research.
Founding and early development 2030-2045
// This section is intended as a combination of storytelling and blueprinting. The goals are to make the guild seem A) temporally and causally connected to our current day B) illustrate the founding beliefs / thesis / mission of the Guild C) generally illustrate an imaginative successful path to a brighter future, even through periods of significant tumult. Eventually, I plan to include ‘original’ founding documents such as a vision statement, Guild code of conduct, a sample customer / partner contract, a sample project plan, etc. //
Founded 2035
Between Sun Valley and Idaho falls
Began semi-organically / small and questing
A few engineers moved out to a ranch, just to get out of Silicon Valley and started a small community development project
Interesting visitors invited informally (friends) or formally (artists in residence) for stays and events. Folks begin to rent timeshares or outright on the ranch and move onto adjoining properties.
Investors and political influencers would occasionally travel through the area as well, generally on the way to vacations in Sun Valley or Jackson; or would meet on-mountain, still a small network, but gained high credibility
Core group of engineers generally had the technical skill to be highly demanded and able to work remotely for ambitious companies.
The living proximity of engineers and designers from varied companies and specializations, combined with the intentional interdisciplinary learning and community development created a developmental flywheel. Soon an affiliation with the community became a noted recruiting criterion.
Organization formed to do larger contract work, though many individuals still working for their own LLCs or remotely for startups and large companies based elsewhere
Central lab / maker-space / hardware development site created and developed
Visiting fellows and longer term apprenticeship program slowly developed
Community grows; youth education demand increases; resource and infrastructure needs increase; community discussions of social technology and governance structures increase in relevance
small organizational research non-profit launched out of pre-existing informal conversations and independent inquiry
‘Town and gown’ conflicts and confusion
Infrastructure needs drive broader coordination with broader regional suppliers
Original community members progressing in their careers and able to fund some, but remains tricky
Broader societal and ecological tumult increases community impulse towards self-reliance, vertical integration, and strategic thinking
Community somewhat insulated by:
Productive exchange of technical knowledge and skill in the region
Sufficiently remote location
Sun Valley and Jackson somewhat insulated as distant, but increasingly decadent and inaccessible places - areas generally left outside of political conflicts
Founding / early personalities developing larger conflicts
Tensions between organic and planned development
2040-2045 is a difficult series of years for everyone involved. Some folks leave. Those who stay realize they’ve a lot at stake in the area, and begin to organize and function as a strategic entity. Iterations on the formal and informal aspects of this entity evolve into the Guild we think of today.
By the 2050’s, notably transformed by rigor and necessity
Leased technology providing recurring revenue
Distinctive, codified, professional ethics, approach to R&D, and reputed for such
Particular reputation and track record developing in consultative product development work for biomedical, assistive, military, athletic uses
Though a small portion of revenue at this point, a point of organizational pride and identity
Structure long-term apprenticeships
Novel, interdisciplinary specializations and specialized education
Centralized guild leadership and agreed standards for boundaries between guild and personal work
Highly distinctive culture taking shape--creative work becoming semi-spiritual, like monks making beer
Coordination with broader region increasingly sophisticated
Social technology and aesthetic research teams (independent of Guild at this point, but formal and informal knowledge exchange)
Image credit: James St. John
Snapshot of the Guild (2045-55)
// This section is meant to be most descriptive and illustrative-- I want to sketch a picture of the organization and location. I plan to replace much of the descriptive text around the architecture and design with diagrams, floorplans, landscape maps, photos, sketches. //
Place: Architecture, Landscape, and Ecology
Notes on Design
Notable design intent to integrate engineering, aesthetics, and social aspects
R&D facility nearly as spiritually charged a space as the church
The dining space designed to facilitate rejuvenative, creative, and productive conversations between Guild members and apprentices of varied ranks
Built to endure - durable, redundant, and resilient systems
Materials: significant use of stone, mud brick, laminated wood, steel
Stockpiling of renovation / repair materials to smooth long term supply fluctuations -- designs based on consistent (stockable) dimensions
Wiring and plumbing generally exposed for ease of repair
Maximally passive temperature management
Passive security measures - geological engineering / landscaping for protection from wind and intentional physical threats
Caves for food storage and processing, other overflow needs, and emergencies
Underground cisterns
Designed with anticipation of additions, augmentations, and renovations
Ecological engineering and integration
Guild lands surveyed continually
Portions actively cultivated; portions protected; portions left ‘wild’
Resources developed or cultivated -- generally a lush approach to meeting human resource needs and, when and where affordable, intentional cultivation of varied forms of plant and animal life for beauty and curiosity. Surrounding geology and biology is considered both a complex system and an essentially creative domain.
Significant agricultural activity
Food volumes beyond atelier needs
Stockpiling and sale / trade
Rotating lumber, fishing, etc.
Aquaculture (farmed)
Mix of ‘wild’ and farmed, local and non-native plant and animal life
Game tagging and tracking system
Active pollinator management (bee keeping, bird feeding)
Landscape - ranch and ranges: significant open space, walking grounds, central gardens, distributed naturalist and Shinto-influenced shrines, sculpture, and gardens
Individually / privately managed homes and properties, though somewhat aesthetically coordinated (similar to Sea Ranch)
Notable aesthetic and physical boundary setting between central structures, ranch facilities and lands, and the outside world
Seed stockpile, other ecological hedging strategies
Ecological engineering specialists consulted as part of partnership / exchange
Central Structures
Museum
Founding art: favorite works of founders with annotations, used to communicate original values and key concepts--continually built out with art selected by leaders, by vote, works donated by partner institutions
Assorted pieces, including replications of seminal works and archeological finds, for reference and education
a necessity given remoteness of location / distance from museums, and splintering of society’s creative community
Enabled consistent and historically grounded aesthetic communication
Past prototypes, concept art, and personal works used to represent aesthetic evolution of the organization
Space for meditation, contemplation, ideation
‘Solar’ by Charlotte Mayer
Plan of the Pantheon drawn by Andrea Palladio
Pianta del teatro antico di Vicenza, Andrea Palladio
prints by Albrecht Dürer
Meditation center
Designed to accommodate individual and group meditation practices
Spaces for meditation or prayer sprinkled throughout other indoor and outdoor areas, some access based on rank and privilege system
Amphitheater: style and proportions of a classical Greek amphitheater, used for large lectures, addresses, entertainment, competition
Dining Hall: round tables individually headed by a senior or master practitioner, then populated with a variety of more junior practitioners, rotating periodically
Design and engineering work space
Standardized regardless of role
Single space, though segmented
Individual work spaces on the periphery
Group work spaces radially nearer the center
Central space for assembly of prototypes
Separate studio spaces for education, experimentation, or smaller projects
Masters workshop
Machine shop: safe, spacious, bright
Loading bay
R&D and testing facilities
Infrastructure
Hydroelectric generators running on nearby rivers
Small thorium reactor, maintained by an external org.
Grid connection
Cheap / excess energy stored by pumping water into an elevated reservoir
Irrigation fed from a proximate river
Coal stockpiles
Monastic Life
Ritual and procedural consistency meaningful, but minimalist
Formal dinners as well as less formal seated meals
Regular, consistently structured community meetings
Chores such as building maintenance and cultivation of the land performed by all, though specializations varied widely and those most skilled in a given specialization only ritualistically shared in other work
Rigorous communities of practice around all major skill-sets--productive or monetizable work often subordinated as a value to the broader pursuit of excellence in a domain
Disputes process
Officially secular, the central spiritual structure is non-denominational
Significant portion of the membership composed of varied Christian denominations
Active study of varied religions drive by both academic and personal quests
Neo-Shinto influence
Creative endeavors considered a high calling and often imbued with spiritual significance
Product
Generally consultative, wide variety of projects given the rarity of internal technical knowledge
Aesthetic fluency and deep integration of design and engineering practices enabled the Guild to produce products people were comfortable interacting with closely, frequently, and in high stakes contexts
As such, the Guild developed some specialization in medical, military, and athletic devices and equipment
Some products were developed purely internally, for guild users and/or the general market.
One recognizable example is in flexible assistive exoskeletons developement, though the origin story is not widely known:
Community of Aikido practitioners in the Guild used kinesiology tape (KT) and compression clothing during training
Also usage of heart rate monitors and electric stimulation devices for muscle recovery
Efforts to improve the tools aesthetically and functionally naturally arose from participants
Concept arose to make the KT tape and compression layers dynamic using electroactive polymers and intelligent by integrating sensors.
The eventual result was a flexible, beautifully shaped exoskeleton, applied like KT tape that read the electrical impulses of muscle contraction and assisted motion--lightly, but enough--by contracting. Integrated motion sensors were used to repeatedly train assistive impulse to match the natural / unassisted movement.
The product developed in conjunction with the community’s Aikido practice and resulted in a distinctive martial art form
Of course, this technology was further developed and leased for medical, military, construction, and recreational uses, and is now one of the most recognized technological contributions of the Guild.
Partnerships
For the Guild, customer relationships were generally framed as partnerships
Many institutional relationships had aspects of both a supplier and customer--other guilds and firms who provided services often had long term contractual exchanges
In the 2050s, the variety of private, public, religious, decentralized, and foreign state institutions was then unprecedented. This increased transaction costs and led the Guild to prioritize longer term, higher investment relationships.
Currency instability and volatile taxation rates also led the Guild to seek out longer term, high trust partnerships, which could be compensated non-monetarily, over a longer timeline.
Training at the Guild was also valued highly, and, in high trust or high value partnerships, the Guild would take several students as apprentices for 2-4 years
Notable partnerships included the ecological engineering firm Dadima, reactor design firm Haddock Engineering, and, of course, DARPA (though this may be more accurately viewed as a partnership with the regional governor, the Guild’s
political patron)
Engineering and Design Methods
Partners heavily involved throughout
Surprising degree of exchange of specialized knowledge occurred between the Guild and partner organizations
This may simply suggest that the Guild had more advanced ‘stores’ of knowledge than we imagine, or it may demonstrate the high trust nature of such partnerships, further research is required
It is universally reputed that Guild members maintained a crystalline distinction made between the setting and testing of product performance and that of engineering specifications
Remarkable given the frequency of specification changes and of product iterations
Organization
Board
Chief Executive
Shared ownership through and through
Differentiation between work negotiated by guild leadership vs outside contracts with individual masters or apprentices, protocols for each
Personal projects: conducted with the use of local facilities for a set % fee
Protocol for launching new ventures outside the original site
Semi-autonomous social technology research arm
Semi-autonomous aesthetic research team
Education and development
Education was heavily focused on practice, and oriented around master <> apprentice relationships
In some cases, training took place directly, in others, chains of master > senior > junior > apprentice were more effectual
The Guild sometimes took on non-guild apprentices from high-trust partner organizations, or provided group oriented and lecture based training opportunities
Critically to the spread of Guild concepts, leading engineers from many contemporaneous engineering firms attended such trainings, several of whom credit the frameworks as substantially influencing their own firms’ education and development methodologies
Upon attaining the status of a junior apprentice, and before committing to a specialization in the Guild, young trainees would spend a year travelling to learn about the world and consider possible future paths
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Image credit: Metacke
Geographical and organizational expansion: 2050-2075
// This section will be relatively brief. I may use some device like “This has been covered in other research” to abbreviate it. The primary purpose is to clarify the guild had a longer term role. //
Formal Dissolution of the guild: 2075-2085
// This is also intended to be relatively brief. Here, I want to draw a picture of how a highly effective organization yielded significant benefits to the rest of society that aren’t obvious up-front and how focusing on the ‘formal’ organization would cause someone to miss the point. I might include a bit of mystique by suggesting that the Guild intentionally dissolved in order to proliferate these benefits in accordance with a long-term founding mission. //
Relevance and Further research
This case offers rich potential for application to the current day. It’s resilience in the face of dramatic civilizational change has potential applications for hedge institutions and moonshots alike.
Additionally, study of the Guild’s methodologies in engineering, education, team and institutional structuring would provide perspective on the origins of modern approaches.
Specific further research topics include:
What knowledge from the Guild have we retained and unknowingly relied upon? What knowledge has been unknowingly lost?
A number of Guild members and descendants went on to play notable roles in generative fields--what can an improved understanding of the Guild teach us about those actors and their role in history?
Given the underestimation of Guild political savvy, greater color on the political role of the Guild over the last century is warranted.
How might an understanding of the Guild’s survival and flourishing through the second half of the 21st century illuminate the challenges and broader dynamics of the period?
I will leave the reader with a quote from the retirement address of Gunkar McNamara II, Chief of the Grounds 2057-2073:
If we were each, for a time, possessed with the virtue and intelligence of our highest aspirations, what questions might we then ask?